Central African Republic Key Message Update: Conflict and elevated prices are sustaining Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, May - September 2026

Country: Central African Republic Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Many areas in the northeast, southeast, and northwest will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes from May through September, particularly in prefectures most affected by insecurity and isolation, where access to fields, income-generating opportunities, and major trade routes remain severely constrained. In the central and southern regions, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist during the peak lean season, driven by depleted food stocks, heavy market dependence, limited seasonal income opportunities, and high prices; however, the arrival of harvests beginning in July will allow conditions to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in most of these areas. Security conditions remain concerning, particularly in Haut-Mbomou, Vakaga, Haute-Kotto, and in the northwest, especially in Ouham and Ouham-Pendé. Although the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) (428,227) remained broadly stable between March 2025 and March 2026, this trend masks localized displacement linked to persistent insecurity, particularly in Haut-Mbomou. Additional insecurity-related displacements were reported in May in Ouham, while increasing insecurity in Nana-Gribizi is disrupting supply flows along the Kaga-Bandoro corridor and limiting access to markets and fields. The high proportion of displaced people living with host families continues to place significant pressure on local resources, while poor households’ access to food remains severely constrained. The rainy season is generally established and favorable across most of the country, with cumulative rainfall ranging from average to below average, supporting crop and vegetation development at normal to above-normal levels during the agricultural season. Agricultural activities are intensifying in southern regions with planting and land preparation underway. Poor households are currently facing the lean season, which is already underway in the south and center and is characterized by depleted food stocks and increased dependence on markets. In areas affected by insecurity, access to fields remains limited, which could reduce cultivated areas and negatively affect production prospects. Additionally, localized rainfall deficits and delayed seasonal onset in some central and northern areas could further compromise crop development. Prices of staple foods remain high and continue their seasonal increase amid depleted stocks, as illustrated by a 6 percent rise in the cost of the food basket between February and April. This trend is driven by higher transportation costs and persistent supply chain constraints. Although markets remain generally functional and supplied, deteriorating road conditions, insecurity, and high logistics costs are limiting trade flows and contributing to particularly high prices in isolated areas. In this lean season context, the purchasing power of poor households in these areas is expected to deteriorate further, reducing their ability to access food. Food assistance continues in the southern part of the country during the lean season, but coverage remains insufficient relative to growing needs due to significant funding shortfalls. Between March and April 2026, WFP assisted approximately 60,000 people (about 60 percent of the January-March target population) through general food assistance programs. In-kind assistance remained higher for refugees, with an average ration of 530 grams per person per day, compared with 405 grams for other groups. However, persistent financial constraints are limiting the scale and continuity of interventions and risk causing prolonged disruptions to the humanitarian response.