Violence in Mogadishu, a fractured elite: What renewed violence means for Somalia and its backers

Isaaq, a construction worker, was helping build a high-rise in Mogadishu’s central Howl Wadaag district when Somalia’s long-simmering political standoff came crashing into the structure he had spent weeks raising, in a barrage of Rocket-Proppelled Grenade blasts and gunfire. On June 4, a dispute between the government and opposition over the end of the president’s term erupted into fighting in the capital.  Somalia’s parliament passed constitutional amendments in March that extended the president’s term by one year, which the opposition and some federal states have rejected, plunging Somalia into a political crisis.  A security guard at the site tells Mada Masr that soldiers aligned with opposition leader and former Prime Minister Hassan Khaire had taken up positions inside the building where Isaaq was working and in a neighbouring block.  When clashes broke out between government forces and fighters loyal to Khaire, federal troops opened fire at it. “Everyone shouted and threw themselves to the ground,” Isaaq says. Moments later, workers and others inside fled as the building was peppered with heavy gunfire. “We were frightened. I thought that was it for us all,” he adds.  When Mada Masr visited days later, the site still bore the marks of the battle. The floors were littered with spent shell casings and the discarded bones from meat left behind by soldiers during 24 hours of fighting. Rubble and broken glass lay everywhere. Next door, the violence had also ripped through Hamar Booth, a photo studio. Bullets and RPGs tore through the walls, leaving gaping holes, destroying equipment and forcing it to close for days.  The owner, who gave Mada Masr access to the unit, was not in the studio when the fighting erupted, but later returned to survey the damage. “This project was my passion and in moments it has been ruined,” she tells Mada Masr. … Later on June 4, the fighting spread across Mogadishu to the private residence of former President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed in the northern Abdiaziz district. Sharif and Khaire had said they intended to organize demonstrations against President Hassan Sheikh Hassan’s bid to remain in power another year and pressure him to negotiate an election date. Both rejected a government request to hold the protests at a stadium and insisted on retaining their own large, heavily armed security details.  “We wanted to march, to make a point, so we could gather public support,” a source close to Khaire tells Mada Masr. “We didn’t want a gathering at a stadium that would not create an impact,” the source added.  After leaving the secure airport compound, where much of Mogadishu’s political elite reside, a day ahead of the demonstrations and returning to their private residences in their clan strongholds in the city, tensions escalated. Government forces surrounded Khaire’s home, and a gunfight soon broke out. Both sides have blamed the other for firing first, but the result was 48 hours of terror for residents of the two neighbourhoods where the clashes occurred, along with widespread disruption across Mogadishu.  Somalia has been locked in a political standoff since March, when the constitutional change which extended the president’s mandate intensified deeper, unresolved political disputes over how and when the country chooses its leaders. The violence that took place laid bare these divisions and the stakes around them. They also placed a spotlight on the important role of external powers in attempting to keep Somalia’s statebuilding project on track amid disputes among its elites. Central to this spotlight is Turkey, which has demonstrated its growing role in the country as it attempts to position itself as a key mediator.  https://www.madamasr.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/signal-2026-06-09-195701_002.mp4 Traces of destruction in Mogadishu’s central Howl Wadaag district after fighting between the government and opposition forces broke out … Heightened tensions and, at times, violence around elections have become a recurring feature in Somalia in recent years. The long-running state-building process has recorded important gains since 2012, from the rebuilding of the army to securing the capital, which was previously the site of regular deadly attacks.  However, several key issues remain unresolved, including how to manage politics. This is complicated by the fact that the government lacks control over large parts of the country and has been unable to organize nationwide elections. Somali voters have not participated in a nationwide popular vote since the final civilian government in 1969, which was overthrown in a military coup that same year. As a result, elections have become a major source of political contention, with opposition figures repeatedly accusing incumbents of failing to establish an inclusive and credible process that commands broad support. In 2012, Somalia’s political elite settled on an indirect system in which clan elders, federal state authorities, and influential figures form electoral colleges that select members of both houses of parliament, who then go on to elect the president. The system has long been widely criticized as unpopular and vulnerable to corruption, with reports of extensive vote-buying in some cases reaching up to $1 million — an extraordinary figure in a country where GDP per capita is only a fraction of that. Despite that, the system has had buy-in and since 2012, three peaceful transfers of power have taken place.  Because so many of the figures involved in this process are arbitrarily selected, it is extremely vulnerable to incumbency advantage and so ensuring fairness has historically led to jostling between elites and violent contestation.  In the 2021 electoral cycle, clashes broke out in the capital when then-President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo attempted to extend his mandate and was accused of trying to put his thumb on the scale in the electoral process. He eventually negotiated with other contenders to agree on a method for holding the elections that all sides could accept. When Hassan was elected in 2022 for his second term, defeating Farmaajo, he pledged to complete Somalia’s provisional constitution and eventually hold a popular election. Earlier this year, local elections were held in Mogadishu and federal polls in Baidoa, the capital of South West State, which the government has framed as victories. However, these milestones have not been reflected more broadly across the country, where the new constitution remains disputed by the opposition. The autonomous states of Puntland and Jubaland have severed ties with the central government due constitutional changes and Somaliland remains outside the federal system.  Omar Mahmood, a senior Somalia analyst at the International Crisis Group, tells Mada Masr that the Somali political system was built around “half measures,” saying that a basic settlement exists, the provisional constitution, but there is no consensual mechanism to move the system beyond it. “That is why we always have this tension,” Mahmood says. “It is still an environment marked by extreme mistrust and lack of a common vision for a way forward. That is why we get mired in these disputes.” “Somali elites are only in agreement on two issues; that they negotiate their elections and that they get held regularly,” a senior former government advisor tells Mada Masr. “When a timely agreement on an electoral model and date is not set, then you often get violence.” The constitutional changes pushed through earlier this year affect both the electoral model and the electoral timetable, the advisor adds.  Despite prior assurances by Hassan that the constitutional changes would not apply to his term, several senior officials, including Hassan himself, have since said that they will be implemented immediately. … The United Kingdom and the United States initially mediated between opposition figures organized under the umbrella of the Somali Future Council — a coalition that includes members of parliament, regional presidents, former prime ministers and a former president — and the government. These talks broke down on May 15, with the government stating that the opposition had “brought to the table positions that run counter to citizens’ fundamental right to vote and to be voted for.” While the Eid and Hajj season brought a temporary reprieve in electoral tensions, Sharif and Khaire spearheaded efforts to maintain pressure on the government by announcing protests would take place. Days before the talks broke down, Hassan said the government would be responsible for securing the protests and would designate a stadium for opposition leaders, warning about the broader security implications of holding public demonstrations. Somalia continues to grapple with Al-Shabaab, an Al-Qaeda affiliate that has carried out deadly attacks across the country, including in the capital. Several opposition figures accused the government of using security forces on the first day of protests to confine them to their homes. Khaire and Sharif, in response, preempted this by relocating across the city to their clan strongholds a day before the June 4 protests, saying that they would demonstrate wherever they chose. They moved with heavily armed militias.  The government viewed this as a challenge to its authority and an attempt to deploy armed militiamen in a civilian neighbourhood.  Defence Minister Ahmed Moallim Fiqi later compared the opposition fighters to Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. The opposition could see a coming storm. “If I have a single bullet left,” warned Sharif on June 3rd, “any man that fires at me, I will fire back at him.” Fighting broke out at around 4 pm on June 4, bringing Mogadishu to a standstill. The fighting has undermined months of government messaging about improved security in the capital, which has not experienced a major attack since October last year.  The European Union, the United Kingdom and other embassies immediately issued warnings. The US embassy, one of Somalia’s key security partners, described the violence as “reckless.”  Most of the fighting occurred in the central Howl Wadaag district, near Khaire’s residence, and in the northern Abdiaziz district, near Sharif’s home. It ended with separate agreements between Khaire and Sharif and the government which led to them being escorted back to the secure airport compound with their teams. Somalia’s Information Ministry said on Friday it had “full restored order” and that “illegally armed opposition militias have been disarmed and removed.”  At the height of the violence, army units closed Maka al-Mukarama Road, Mogadishu’s main thoroughfare, while most shops in Bakara Market, Somalia’s largest commercial centre, were shut. Both are near Khaire’s residence. The deputy governor of the central bank, Ali Wardheere, said in a Facebook post that an un-official estimate put the combined cost of the violence at $3.8 million.  The United Nations refugee agency stated 13 people were killed and 189 wounded, and that about 12,500 households were displaced due to the fighting, while Somalia’s health ministry disputed the figures, saying one person was killed and 55 were injured. Mada Masr was unable to account for the differences in the figures. Samira Gaid, a Somali security expert, tells Mada Masr that Mogadishu residents are aware of the precautions to take, including leaving neighbourhoods where fighting is likely in anticipation of bouts of violence, which she says helps explain the relatively low injury and casualty figures despite the urban warfare.  … An extremely fragile truce is currently in place in the Somali capital between opposition politicians and the government.  According to police commander Mahdi Omar, the government has since reframed the purpose of its operation as a push to disarm elites with large armed guards.  “Today is not yesterday,” Omar said repeatedly in several video statements, explaining that Somalia would no longer tolerate civilians carrying heavy arms.  The government has also expanded its operations to target additional opposition-aligned figures. Farmaajo said former Army Commander Odowaa Yusuf Rageh’s home was encircled by government forces, though a full attack did not transpire. The government said on Monday that it had seized a cache of weapons from Elite Hotel, allegedly destined for opposition fighters. The hotel’s owner, Abdullahi Mohamed Nor (a former minister) — whose property is a well-known establishment along Lido Beach near Sharif’s residence — said security forces remained on the premises “unlawfully” for four consecutive days and planted heavy weapons there in an attempt to implicate him. The light arms were for the hotel’s security, Nor said. The hotel has previously been targeted by Al-Shabaab.  Sharif thanked clan elders and international diplomats in a statement released through his party, Himilo Qaran, after reaching an agreement with the government on Friday to broker a truce. The agreement included an immediate halt to fighting, a withdrawal of forces and continued negotiations on transition arrangements, according to a party statement. Khaire, in a press conference that night, struck a defiant tone, saying protests would continue and that the opposition would carry on opposing the government until an election date was agreed. Three sources close to both opposition figures also confirm reports of Turkish-initiated efforts to consolidate and advance the truce toward an electoral deal. Ankara is Somalia’s main security partner and plays a major role in the government’s defence and commercial sectors, as well as more recently in the energy sector. Earlier this year, Turkey elevated Somalia to a strategic priority following a meeting of its National Security Council, the country’s apex security body. Weeks earlier, Ankara confirmed it had begun work on a spaceport north of Mogadishu.  Opposition figures have however interpreted Turkey’s backing of Somalia for support for the incumbent, Hassan. Several prominent opposition figures have accused Turkey of being partial, and interfering in Somali internal affairs. In early May, Turkish opposition MP and former ambassador to Somalia, Cemalettin Kani Torun, acknowledged their sentiment and called on President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to maintain an equal distance from all political groups. Torun was later reprimanded by Somalia’s ports minister, Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur, the country’s pointman on Turkish affairs, when Torun made a proposal on how Somalia’s electoral deadlock could be overcome. In a post on X, Nur told Torun that “it is unacceptable for you to make political assessments about Somalia.”  The three sources close to the opposition figures say Turkey’s deputy intelligence chief, Ahmet Cemalettin Çelik, had led a delegation to Somalia and conducted meetings with all major opposition figures. One of the sources close to Sharif says the delegation came to gather information on the situation so that it could assist efforts to break the deadlock, but also give assurances that Ankara was neutral in intra-Somali political disputes. “He told us that Turkey was for the general good of Somalia, not for one group against another,” the source says. It was part of a broader effort by Turkey to consult government officials and the opposition, they add. On Friday, Ali Omar, the state minister for foreign affairs, met with Turkey’s ambassador to Somalia, Alper Aktaş. A Turkish diplomatic source tells Mada Masr that Ankara remains flexible and seeks to protect its interests while maintaining positive relations with all parties. They add that Turkey’s relationship with Somalia was institutional rather than tied to any particular political actor, meaning any future president could expect continued partnership with Ankara. An opposition figure who will contest the next election, speaking on condition of anonymity to Mada Masr, says Turkey had come under pressure in Somalia and was seeking to ensure that its relationships with various figures were not harmed by its ties to the current president who has polarised the political scene. The same source says Turkish officials had hosted several opposition figures in Ankara and Istanbul, including himself, to hear their views on the situation and discuss how it could be de-escalated. He was optimistic about Ankara’s efforts to advance talks.  “I am hopeful they will deliver,” he says.  Farmaajo, who has remained aloof amid much of the dispute, and whose nationalist base appears cooler on Turkey, last week described Turkish efforts to find a way forward as “genuine” at a press conference, but admonished Somali elites for failing to find a solution. He called on Hassan to sit down privately with him and Sharif over coffee to discuss the issue. Hassan, who accepted the invitation, insisted it take place at Villa Somalia, a signal that he wanted to maintain control of the optics.  Prior to the breakdown in talks, efforts to broker an agreement between Somalia’s elites have been led by the US and UK, both seen as influential but relatively neutral mediators. The Somali Future Council, an opposition coalition seeking to pressure the presidency, also includes the influential leaders of Puntland and Jubaland. Both have withdrawn from Somalia’s federal system over the constitutional changes and have rejected the review process. Politicians from both states boycotted the final vote in March.  Said Deni, the Puntland president and a presidential contender, is close to the UAE, and officials around him have publicly criticised Turkey’s role in Somalia for empowering the federal government.  A senior Puntland official, speaking anonymously to Mada Masr, says Turkey was seeking to gain a seat at the table in the next round of talks between the Somali government and opposition, but was viewed in Garowe, Puntand’s capital, as pro-Hassan. A source close to Sharif also says Turkey wanted a seat at the negotiating table as a major stakeholder.  The next round of talks is scheduled for the coming days although a specific date has not been set.  Across Mogadishu, life is steadily returning to “normal,” a development that Gaid, the security analyst, warns may create a false sense of security. The various factions remain heavily armed and deeply distrustful of one another’s intentions, and with each passing day tensions between them continue to rise. For members of the public, however, there is little choice. The costs of violence in the city fall overwhelmingly on street vendors, stall owners, bajaj drivers and others in precarious employment whose fortunes depend on mobility and security in the city.  Many people live day to day, a Finance Ministry official tells Mada Masr, meaning they earn just enough to cover their daily expenses, from food to electricity and rent. “The situation is fragile overall, and it is easy to forget, given the headlines, that we are in the midst of a humanitarian crisis because of the Iran war and the drought here,” the official says.  Many are trying to move on from the violence. At the Hamar Booth photo studio, repair work on the broken walls was already underway on Sunday. Debris, spent bullet casings and broken glass were being cleared from the site.  But for Gaid, the security analyst, the cracks in Somali’s political structure that gave way to this violence are much harder to repair: “At any moment, things can explode again.” The post Violence in Mogadishu, a fractured elite: What renewed violence means for Somalia and its backers first appeared on Mada Masr.